Veille 2.1

The critical annual update revealing the latest trends in global carbon emissions

Ook in 2022 heeft het Global Carbon Budget, de wereldwijde CO2-begroting, geen goed nieuws. De globale uitstoot van broeikasgassen blijft stijgen. Peter Landschützer over de rol van de oceaan in het klimaat: ‘Het is aan ons om de stress die we de oceaan bezorgen, te stoppen.’

Following record-level declines in 2020, near-real-time data indicate that global CO2 emissions rebounded by 4.8% in 2021, reaching 34.9 GtCO2. These 2021 emissions consumed 8.7% of the remaining carbon budget for limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C, which if current trajectories continue, might be used up in 9.5 years at 67% likelihood.

On Sunday this week Zakaria ended his program with a concise description of an effective approach to address climate change – in just a few minutes he described how carbon fee-and-dividend could be made near-global. I won’t try to summarize his take – it’s impossible to match his clarity and brevity, which includes great illustrations.

Today, the average global temperature has increased by more than 1°C compared to pre-industrial values (Figure 1-1); atmospheric CO2 concentrations have risen from 280 to more than 400 ppm. At the current pace of emissions, the carbon budget that is left for staying below the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement will be depleted in a few tens of years. For the 1.5°C target, this budget will be exhausted before the decade is out.

Unlike carbon dioxide, atmospheric methane concentrations are rising faster than at any time in the past two decades. The fossil fuel, agriculture and waste sectors are equally responsible.